(DailyVantage.com) – Republican Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan said in a CNN interview that the No Labels group would likely launch a third-party candidate alternative if former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden win their party’s nominations. Hogan, the national co-chairman of No Labels, has been pushing for a third-party ticket.
The speculation about who would be their candidate includes former Gov. Charlie Baker (R-MA), Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH), and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV). However, Democrats are worried third-party candidates may serve to increase the non-Biden vote share while not hindering Trump’s base.
David Axelrod, a political consultant and former White House official, believes that Trump’s campaign has a “high floor” and “low ceiling,” meaning that his base of support is large enough and that he won’t be able to reach many voters outside his base. As a result, Axelrod thinks third-party candidacies would lower the number of votes needed to win a state, potentially handing key battleground state victories to Trump. However, those against the “spoiler” theory believe that it is instead the job of the Biden re-election campaign to maintain its base of support rather than wait for other candidates to drop out.
Recently, Democrats attempted to block No Labels from ballot access in Arizona. However, Arizona Judge Katherine Cooper wrote that the lawsuit lacked the proper arguments or evidence for deficiencies in No Labels’ paperwork. Trump won Arizona with 48.08% of the vote in 2016 but lost with 49.06% of the vote in 2020. These election results show that a third-party candidate could lower the plurality vote Trump would need to win the state in 2024.
Cook Political Reports gives Democrats 247 electors and Republicans 235 electors, putting 56 of the 538 total electors as tossups from the four states of Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. National polls on FiveThirtyEight show a narrow plurality lead for Trump in Arizona and Georgia, a tossup in Pennsylvania, and a lead for Biden in Wisconsin. While the election is over a year away, how third-party candidates could impact the 2024 election could remain relevant as campaign filing deadlines approach in swing states.
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