(DailyVantage.com) – Republicans have taken an unexpected lead in early voting in Nevada, a state that has leaned Democratic in recent presidential elections, sparking concern within Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign. According to Jon Ralston of the Nevada Independent, the early lead by Republicans is “unprecedented” in recent times, particularly in the so-called “Reid Machine Era,” named after the late Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, whose influence helped secure Nevada for Democrats in elections since 2008.
Historically, Nevada’s largest voting block, centered in Clark County (Las Vegas), has been a Democratic stronghold, but this year Republicans have closed that gap. Early voting results from Clark County show Democrats holding just a narrow 4,500-vote lead over Republicans, a dramatic reduction from previous cycles. In Washoe County, home to Reno and another crucial Democratic base, Republicans have pulled even, erasing the Democrats’ historical advantage there. In addition, the GOP is bolstering its numbers in rural counties, threatening to upend Democrats’ “firewall” strategy in Nevada.
The stakes are high, as Nevada has been a pivotal battleground in recent elections, with Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden both winning by thin margins of around 30,000 votes in 2016 and 2020, respectively. Republican momentum in Nevada is reflective of broader trends: since 2020, Nevada has been trending toward the GOP, marked by significant voter registration swings. In 2020, Democrats held about a 5% advantage in voter registration; that advantage is down to just 1%, largely due to a 50,000-voter swing toward Republicans. This trend helped the GOP flip Nevada’s governorship in 2022, with Republican Joe Lombardo’s victory.
The Harris campaign is now focusing efforts on a “firewall” strategy to rebuild the Democratic lead in Clark County via mail-in ballots and increased turnout. With Republicans actively gaining ground across the state, Democrats are looking for ways to mobilize supporters in the final weeks of early voting.
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