Rare Earth Squeeze Risks U.S. Defense

China can cut off the materials that power America’s fighter jets, electric vehicles, and smartphones — and right now, the U.S. has no fast way out.

At a Glance

China controls roughly 60% of global rare earth mining and 85% of refining — giving it enormous leverage over U.S. defense and industry.
China tightened export controls on key rare earth elements in 2025, squeezing supply to the U.S. and its allies.
Opening a new U.S. mine takes an average of 29 years — making quick self-sufficiency nearly impossible.
Experts say the realistic goal is cutting dependence on China to 30–40% over the next 5–10 years, not eliminating it.

Why Rare Earths Are a National Security Problem

Rare earth elements are a group of 17 metals used in everything from fighter jet radar systems to electric vehicle motors to smartphones. They are not actually rare in the ground, but processing them is complex and expensive. Over decades, the U.S. and its allies stopped investing in that work. China stepped in and built the world’s dominant supply chain — from mining to refining to finished magnets — while the West looked the other way.

China now controls roughly 60% of global rare earth mining and about 85% of refining capacity. ^[3] For permanent magnets — the kind used in military hardware and clean energy — China’s grip is even tighter, at around 92% of the global market. ^[3] That is not just a trade issue. It is a direct vulnerability for U.S. national security and manufacturing. When a single foreign country controls that much of a critical supply chain, it gains real power to disrupt American industry and defense at will.

China Has Already Used That Power

This is not a hypothetical risk. In April 2025, China imposed export controls on seven heavy rare earth elements used in permanent magnets and defense systems. By October 2025, Beijing expanded those controls to cover five more rare earths, plus related technologies and some products made with Chinese-origin materials. ^[8] The move sent a clear signal: China is willing to use its mineral dominance as a geopolitical weapon. Shipments of rare earth magnets dropped sharply after the restrictions took effect.

China has done this before. After U.S. tariffs triggered a trade dispute, China restricted rare earth exports and caused a 74% year-on-year drop in magnet shipments within a single month. ^[1] U.S., Japanese, and European automakers all slowed production as a result. The pattern is consistent — when geopolitical tensions rise, China reaches for its mineral leverage. And each time it does, the world is reminded just how exposed the U.S. supply chain really is.

The U.S. Is Trying to Catch Up — but It Is a Long Road

The U.S. government has poured billions of dollars into domestic rare earth projects through multiple agencies, including the Department of Energy, the Department of Defense, and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation. Companies like MP Materials and USA Rare Earth are building domestic mining and magnet manufacturing operations. In September 2025, U.S.-mined and processed rare earths were successfully turned into permanent magnets for use in electric and hybrid vehicles — a meaningful milestone. ^[4]

But the timeline is sobering. Opening a new U.S. mine takes an average of 29 years from discovery to production, compared to 18 years globally. ^[1] Experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies say the realistic goal is reducing U.S. dependence on China to 30–40% over the next 5–10 years — not eliminating it. ^[1] The U.S. also lacks deposits of heavy rare earths, the specific materials China has targeted with export controls and the ones most critical for defense applications. Even with strong investment and political will, closing that gap will take a generation, not a budget cycle.

What This Means for Everyday Americans

This issue cuts across political lines. Conservatives who worry about national defense and China’s growing power have reason to be alarmed — the materials inside U.S. military systems depend on a country that openly views America as a rival. Liberals concerned about manufacturing jobs and economic fairness should note that decades of offshoring and underinvestment created this problem. Both sides can agree that allowing a foreign adversary to control materials essential to American security and industry is a failure of governance that neither party can be proud of.

The G7 nations agreed to a goal of limiting any single country to supplying no more than 60% of rare earth imports by 2030. That is progress, but it is a ceiling that still leaves enormous dependence in place. Meanwhile, internal disputes between U.S. rare earth companies over proprietary technology are creating friction that could slow domestic progress. The hard truth is that the U.S. spent decades letting this vulnerability grow. Fixing it will require sustained effort, real coordination, and patience — none of which Washington has shown in abundance.